Israel Escalates Covert Strikes in Syria as Hezbollah Conflict Looms

Syria

Israel Intensifies Covert Campaign in Syria Amid Hezbollah Tensions

Israel has ramped up covert operations in Syria targeting Hezbollah weapons sites, supply routes, and Iranian-linked commanders. This escalation comes as Israel braces for a potential full-scale conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon, according to seven regional officials and diplomats.

On June 2, an Israeli airstrike killed 18 people, including an Iranian Revolutionary Guards adviser, at a fortified weapons site near Aleppo. In May, Israeli strikes targeted a convoy carrying missile parts to Lebanon and Hezbollah operatives. This increased activity follows a low-level campaign that turned overt after the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza on October 7.

Israel has since eliminated dozens of Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) and Hezbollah officers in Syria. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy notes a significant rise from just two deaths last year before the Gaza conflict.

Recent Strikes and Strategic Shifts

In April, the conflict reached a peak when Israel bombed the Iranian consulate in Damascus, killing a top IRGC commander. In response, Iran launched around 300 missiles and drones at Israel, which were mostly intercepted. Israel retaliated with drone strikes on Iranian territory, marking a direct confrontation between the two nations. Following this, Israel temporarily reduced its strikes on Iranian proxies, but these have resumed due to suspected Iranian weapons transfers to Hezbollah.

Three Syrian officials revealed details of the Israeli strikes around Aleppo and Homs, including the June 2 attack. They described how Israel’s efforts aim to weaken Hezbollah before any potential conflict begins.

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Targeting Hezbollah and IRGC

Israel’s strikes have increasingly targeted high-ranking IRGC members and Hezbollah operatives. The June 2 strike killed Saeed Abyar, an IRGC adviser, at a hidden missile manufacturing plant in Aleppo. Syrian officials confirmed the plant was designed to be difficult to find and strike.

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Another significant attack on May 29 near Homs targeted a vehicle carrying guided missile parts to Lebanon. A separate strike on May 20 targeted Hezbollah members. Prior strikes in late March around Aleppo hit warehouses storing high explosives for missile warheads.

Syrian air defense systems, including Russian-made Pantsir systems and early-warning radars, have also been targeted. These defenses previously offered some security for Hezbollah and Iranian personnel. The increased frequency of strikes suggests Israel’s strategic focus on disrupting the weapons supply chain between Iran and Hezbollah.

Israel’s Strategic Calculations

The number of Israeli attacks in Syria has surged post-October 7, doubling in frequency. Israel conducted 50 airstrikes in Syria within six months, targeting key airports and weapons caches. These strikes have killed approximately 20 IRGC officials and over 30 Hezbollah commanders, significantly more than the previous year.

Lior Akerman of Reichman University highlights that these attacks disrupt arms deliveries and weaken Hezbollah and Iran’s operational capabilities. Despite Hezbollah’s increased arms supplies, Israel’s intensified campaign aims to tip the balance in its favor.

Hezbollah has deployed thousands of fighters in Syria, while Iran continues to send advisers. The strikes have strained Iran’s allies, with many Hezbollah operatives and IRGC personnel killed.

In conclusion, Israel’s heightened campaign in Syria underscores its strategic efforts to weaken Hezbollah and prevent Syria from becoming a front in its broader conflict with Iran. This ongoing shadow war suggests a preparation for a larger confrontation, potentially shifting the balance of power in the region.

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